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Bang for buck—the art of portfolio management

David Hodes, Founder

The real cost of any decision is what you forego by making that choice. In economics, the cost of a decision based on the cost of the next best option is called the opportunity cost. At its most poetic, Henry David Thoreau put it thus: ‘the price of anything is the amount of life you pay for it’.

At first blush that may seem a little extreme, but it is a truth. We are all finite beings and will one day run out of life. Time really is the ultimate constraint. If we had an infinite amount of time, we could do everything we desired and have time left over to enjoy it all.

Over the last few articles of this series, we have looked at two-tier scheduling, the resource management problem and the direction of a solution, as well as the structure of the VMO (value management office) to bring these innovations in schedule and resource management into being. All these components play a part in delivering more of your goal within the time you have available to do it. However, as necessary as they are to optimising individual projects, by themselves, they are not sufficient to make more intelligent decisions between the different initiatives arising from your strategy and business plan.

In the world of finance, portfolio management is the art and science of making decisions about investment mix and policy, matching investments to objectives, asset allocation for individuals and institutions, and balancing risk against performance. Project portfolio management (PPM) refers to a process used by project management organisations to analyse the potential return on undertaking a project. Managers can use PPM to see the big picture and make decisions about what’s out and what’s in.

‘The price of anything is the amount of
life you pay for it’—Henry David Thoreau

In both the world of finance and the world of projects, the goal is to maximise the return on resources invested in creating value from an idea. Typically, this will be calculated using two related ideas: the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR). The idea behind NPV is to calculate all of the cash flowing in and out of your investment over a predetermined time to tell you what those flows are worth if all of it were converted into a single equivalent capital amount today.

The NPV on any given project is heavily dependent on the assumptions of the positive and negative cash flows, as well as the rate of interest used to discount the value of the money you will only realise in the future. Hence, the technique used to determine NPV is called ‘discounted cash flow’. IRR is related to NPV in that the IRR is a target baseline discount (interest) rate that calculates the net present value (NPV) of all future cash flows from a particular project to come out as zero. Therefore, if you can achieve more than the internal rate of return, the project is—technically, at least—worth taking on.

Working with limiting factors
As described in my recent article on constraint accounting, no less a figure than the late Stanford Professor Charles T Horngren stated that ‘relevant information is the predicted future costs and revenues that will differ among alternative actions. The existence of a limiting factor changes the basic assumptions underlying the cost and revenue opportunity of a particular action.’ Thus, if the particular ‘action’ we are talking about is selecting which projects from a portfolio will deliver the best return on investment, then rank ordering on the basis of NPV is not sufficient.

What we need to do to properly evaluate the best decision, based on Horngren’s idea of a ‘limiting factor’ is to introduce the idea of project octane. What I mean by project octane is how much NPV the project delivers for per unit of the critically constrained resource (CCR). Because projects are always competing for finite resources.

Let’s imagine you are evaluating a portfolio of 10 projects, each of which has been evaluated on the basis of its NPV. You are satisfied with the assumptions your team have made with regards to the value each project will deliver and they have been very diligent with their scheduling. You are able to drill into all resource requirements and what they have produced confirms your intuition that the critically constrained resource is your pool of solution architects. You can readily ramp up all other resource types but, for the technology platform you are using, you are simply unable to contract more than 80 solution architects.

When you first look at the portfolio, it looks like the table below:

Scenario 1:

Scenario1 table

Based on the availability of only 80 of your critically constrained resource (CCR), we can only, strictly speaking, do the first two projects, and at a squeeze, perhaps get the third one in. Total NPV for the executable portfolio is therefore between $1.9bn and $2.7bn.

Scenario 2:

If however you add to the table the project octane for each project—that is, how much NPV is delivered for each unit of the CCR—and then rank them according to the octane, you end up with a very different scenario and value proposition:

Scenario2 table

If the number of available solution architects is truly your only constraint, you could run all the projects in green in parallel. In this case, only the last project cannot be completed. Therefore, the total NPV is $4.5bn, or a 67% improvement on scenario 1. Project 10, with its billion-dollar NPV, looked very attractive. Looking at project octane helps us see where true value lies.

In the diagram above we can visualise this octane idea by plotting each project against two axes—the x axis representing the NPV and the y axis the project octane. The red lines indicate the average NPV and the average octane across all ten projects.

Quadrant 1: DYNAMO. These are the most desirable projects to do. They deliver the highest NPV and also have a high octane—that is, they are relatively low on consumption of the CCR and thus deliver a high bang for buck invested in them.

Quadrant 2: DREAMER. These projects have a relatively high octane (good bang for buck for the use of the CCR), but don’t generate enough NPV to move them into quadrant one. Some questions you could ask about these projects are: what can be done to increase the revenue (benefits) from these projects? If it’s a product or service offering, for example, would lowering the price lead to a significant and disproportionate increase in sales volume?

Quadrant 3: DELIVERER. These projects generate a relatively high NPV, but they are also proportionately more consumptive of the CCR than those projects in quadrant one. The question to ask of the projects in this quadrant is: what can be done to offload some or most of the work onto resources which are not as constrained as the solution architects? Perhaps the work can be looked at more closely and the constraint mantra applied: ‘let the constraint do only that which only the constraint can do’. What can be delegated to people who can support the CCR and thus liberate their capacity to do only that which only they can do?

Quadrant 4: DEADBEAT. As one wit put it, the projects in quadrant four are not only the dogs but are the fleas on the dogs! There would be two rounds of heavy-lifting to do to make these projects more attractive: increase the benefits and reduce the consumption of the CCR. It may be possible. But, once again, you have to ask yourself the opportunity cost question: where is your limited attention better spent? On the high-value projects or on wrestling the recalcitrant into submission?

I have found that the idea of project octane doesn’t have to be as quantitatively precise as expressed in these charts. It is best to set the intention to rise to a level of project maturity that makes the quantitative assessment second nature. But the truth is that good managers can usually get a pretty solid intuitive idea of octane without having to do the numbers. Just think about how ‘sticky’ or ‘viscous’ the project seems.

You would know that the numbers you get from a pure NPV calculation make you scratch your head and intuit that there is something not quite right—your critically constrained resources are spending too much time on a project when they could be cranking out a lot more, in a far more streamlined fashion, if allowed to work on those projects which consume less of their precious time. Using all of the tools that come from the ability to quantitatively articulate the load of your portfolio of work and the capacity available to deliver it can end up making you a lot more money, both now and in the future.

There is, of course, another option—the ‘uplift’ step of the 5-Step FOCUS. As one TOC guru put it, ‘when you’ve squeezed all the blood from a stone…get more stones’. Having the ability to quantitatively articulate the demand for resources, by type, in time and place, gives you the ability to pinpoint any further investment in capacity to provide the greatest leverage in value.

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What’s next?

The change from standard thinking to Theory of Constraints (TOC) is both profound and exhilarating. To make it both fun and memorable, we use a business simulation we call The Right Stuff Workshop.

We’d love to run it with you. To learn more:

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“Efficiency is doing things right;
effectiveness is doing the right things”
—Peter Drucker

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Understanding the Jobs Patients Need Doing

David Hodes

A patient may ask for a smaller device, a clearer display or an easier app. Those requests matter, but they leave a deeper question unanswered: what is the person trying to accomplish, and why does the current approach make it difficult?

Someone using a monitoring device may want to understand whether their condition is changing, decide when to seek help or manage daily activities with greater confidence. The device is one means of achieving that outcome.

A powerful question asks how well your organization understands the jobs patients are trying to get done. A strong answer connects patient research with clearly defined outcome statements that become the formal user needs your teams use to build the design history file. Outcome-based user needs are easier to validate, flow more easily into design requirements, and result in faster time to market.

“A feature request describes a possible answer. Understanding the patient’s job to be done sets your design team up to deliver a better solution faster.”

Define the job from the patient perspective

A useful job statement describes an activity the patient needs to accomplish in a relevant context. It should remain understandable without naming your product or preferred technology.

“Use our app every day” describes behavior your organization wants. “Provide a way to recognize when a change in my condition requires professional advice” describes the outcome a patient actually desires.

The distinction affects research. If the team starts with the app, it will ask how to improve screens and interactions. Starting with the job opens questions about information, confidence, timing and support. The best solution may involve changes beyond the app.

Define a scope the team can investigate. “Live a healthier life” expresses an aspiration but is too broad to guide detailed engineering decisions on its own. “Minimize the time it takes to find a solution to my health concern without needing to talk to a doctor or call someone” gives a team a direction, a measure, an object of control and contextual clarifier(s).

Distinguish the job from the journey

Journey mapping shows how people move through a particular care pathway. Job mapping examines what they must accomplish to achieve their purpose, including the work surrounding the interaction with your solution.

The two perspectives complement each other. A journey may show that a patient waits for follow-up. The job perspective asks what they are trying to understand or decide while waiting.

This matters because current processes can become embedded in the team’s assumptions. Patients may need a reliable way to recognize an important change; they do not necessarily need the exact sequence of activities currently provided.

Use the journey to understand context and dependencies. Use the job to examine whether a different approach could help the patient achieve the desired outcome more effectively.

Study daily life where it happens

Patient research begins with observation and empathy interviews at the Gemba, the place where the activity actually occurs.

For patients, that place includes the home and the settings in which they manage health alongside ordinary responsibilities. Ask people to demonstrate routines, explain decisions and describe recent experiences.

Observe what they do. Immerse yourself in the circumstances surrounding the activity. Engage through questions that let them explain their purpose in their own language.

A person may say that managing treatment is straightforward while observation reveals multiple reminders, improvised storage or reliance on a partner. Those arrangements can reveal effort and uncertainty that have become familiar enough to go unreported.

The aim is to understand the why your solution will win before making any decisions about what your solution will do. Customers will want your solution because of the outcomes it gives them, not because of what you made.

Recruit for differences that affect the job

Patients with the same diagnosis may struggle with different parts of an activity. Differences in confidence, experience, resources and support can change how they define success.

Recruit participants whose circumstances reflect the population you intend to serve. Include relevant variations in health literacy, technology familiarity, physical ability and access to care. Are you targeting the tech savvy millennial, a busy parent trying to run a family with four kids or a retiree living in a managed healthcare facility?

Research should also examine emotional and social needs. A patient may want reassurance about managing a task alone or worry about drawing attention to a condition. Keep these needs visible alongside functional outcomes without assuming one design choice resolves them all.

Examine the complete job

The job mapping framework divides a job into eight recurring steps. These steps prompt investigation beyond the most visible interaction.

  1. Define. Establish what the patient needs to achieve and the circumstances that matter.
  2. Locate. Establish how the patient will find the information, materials or support required, including your solution.
  3. Prepare. Uncover how the patient will arrange the environment and resources for the job to be done.
  4. Confirm. Understand how the patient will make the decision to go forward with your solution and determine whether everything is ready for the intended next action steps.
  5. Execute. What outcomes matter to the patient as they get your solution and start using it. Often this is the ONLY job step the team looks at.
  6. Monitor. How will the patient assess and know for sure your solution is progressing successfully.
  7. Modify. Rarely do things work perfectly on the first try. Identify outcomes that are important to the patient when adjustments to the approach are needed when conditions or results require it.
  8. Conclude. Complete the set of outcomes by understanding how the patient completes the activity or prepares to repeat it.

Apply these prompts to actual patient work. Some steps may recur or overlap. The map should help the team discover needs, rather than force experience into an artificial sequence.

“The most useful innovation may help a patient prepare, recognize an exception or recover confidence before it changes the device itself.”

Turn patient language into outcome statements

Interviews generate verbatims: patients’ own descriptions of experiences, difficulties and expectations. Preserve that evidence, then interpret what each statement reveals about the job.

An illustrative verbatim might be, “I keep checking because I don’t know whether the reading matters.” The desired outcome may concern recognizing a meaningful change or understanding what action is appropriate.

A structured outcome statement identifies the direction of improvement, a measure, the object being controlled and relevant context. For example: “Minimize the time required to determine whether a change in a reading requires contacting my care team.”

Ask the team if there are uncovered outcomes that can set your solution apart related to how it is purchased, installed, received, set up, learned with training support, transported, maintained, upgraded, replaced or disposed.

This formulation gives research and design a clearer target. It does not establish a clinical threshold or promise that a device can safely make the decision independently, but often the features that will make your solution “easy to use” or set you apart will come from these outcome statements.

Preserve meaning as you organize the evidence

Several comments may describe the same need. One comment may contain multiple needs. Review the evidence carefully before combining it into a set of outcomes.

Remove duplication, separate distinct outcomes and retain links to the original accounts. Use plain language that patients can understand. Avoid embedding a particular feature in the statement.

Check the interpretation with participants or other appropriate reviewers. “I want fewer notifications” might mean reducing irrelevant interruptions while preserving important information. Treating it as a demand to suppress all alerts would misrepresent the need.

The output should be a coherent set of outcomes organized by job step. Completeness and clarity matter but typically it is ideal to have at least 100 and no more than 200 outcome statements for the team.

Measure importance and satisfaction separately

Qualitative research discovers needs and explains them. Quantitative research helps determine how widely they matter and how well existing approaches satisfy them.

Ask patients to rate the importance of each outcome and their satisfaction with their current ability to achieve it. Make the reference situation clear so respondents evaluate comparable experiences.

A high scoring importance outcome with low satisfaction deserves investigation. High satisfaction may indicate that the need is already well served so the team can use what already exists and put more time in creating innovative solutions to high importance low satisfaction outcomes. Low importance can reduce its priority, although clinical safety requirements cannot be dismissed through a popularity score.

Use a research design appropriate to the intended population. The outcome statements are easy to rate on a five point Likert scale. Choose population quantitative research in alignment with your target persona groups.

Identify opportunities within patient segments

The Outcome Driven Innovation approach uses importance and satisfaction to identify underserved outcomes. Its opportunity calculation adds importance to the positive gap between importance and satisfaction.

Use compatible scales and a clearly defined calculation. Interpret the result alongside the underlying responses, research quality and the clinical context.

Examine differences between groups. An outcome that appears adequately served overall may remain difficult for patients with less support or a different level of experience.

These differences can reveal meaningful segments based on unmet needs. They help the organization avoid treating demographic similarity as evidence that patients need the same solution. Prioritization should retain enough detail to explain whose outcome the proposed improvement will change.

Connect outcomes with development decisions

A target product profile brings the priority outcomes together with business goals, available technology and other relevant requirements. It helps the team agree what success should look like before committing to a concept.

Translate patient outcomes into design inputs and measurable requirements while preserving traceability to the evidence. Define which questions remain uncertain and what research or testing will resolve them.

Evaluate concepts against the outcomes they are intended to improve. Ask whether the proposed approach reduces effort, uncertainty or difficulty for the relevant patients and results in higher satisfaction scores than the baseline solution. A favorable reaction to an attractive prototype provides limited evidence unless the team can connect it with better execution of the job.

Keep patient progress connected to system performance

A priority patient need may involve work performed by a clinician, caregiver or service provider. Investigate those dependencies before deciding that a product change will solve the problem.

The Theory of Constraints helps identify where improvement can change the performance of the wider pathway. A better patient interaction can have limited effect if access to essential support remains constrained.

A Value Management Office can coordinate the initiatives needed to address these connected issues and keep investment aligned with patient outcomes.

“Patient insight becomes useful design evidence when the team can show which outcome matters, who struggles with it and how the solution improves it.”


What comes next

Use patient jobs to be done to review one priority patient job. Can your team state it clearly, map its steps and demonstrate which outcomes are highly important and poorly satisfied?

Start with observation and patient conversations. Build and validate the outcome statements, measure priorities and test concepts against them. That discipline gives Patient Centered Design a practical foundation for better products and more lives changed for good.

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The healthcare professional: a hidden constraint in patient flow

David Hodes

A healthcare professional can recognize the value of a medical device and still struggle to incorporate it into care. The referral may be incomplete. Diagnostic evidence may arrive late. Preparation may require extra staff. Follow-up may introduce work that nobody has agreed to own. Managing the patients before and after may require additional staff which adds risk to the business side of the practice.

Those difficulties affect the clinician’s ability to help patients reach and benefit from your solution. They deserve attention during development and throughout deployment.

The purpose is to understand how professionals encounter, assess, recommend and use a solution, and what constraints they encounter in using your solution.

A useful map connects the professional’s experience with patient flow. It helps the organization identify where support, coordination or design changes can improve the delivery of care.

“Clinical enthusiasm cannot create the time, information or supporting capacity needed to deliver a therapy.”

Identify the professionals who shape the pathway

Healthcare professionals perform different jobs at different stages. A referring practitioner, diagnostic specialist, interventional physician, nurse and educator may all influence whether the same patient receives successful care.

Define which groups participate in your pathway and what each contributes. Who recognizes the need? Who establishes eligibility? Who performs the procedure? Who trains the patient? Who monitors outcomes and manages exceptions? Who manages insurance?

Include people whose work makes these actions possible. Coordinators, technicians and administrative staff may arrange appointments, prepare equipment or assemble records. Their contribution can govern whether clinical time is used effectively.

The map should make dependencies visible across roles. It should also clarify which actions fall within your organization’s influence and which require collaboration with care providers or other affected parties.

Distinguish roles from personas

A professional title tells you part of the story. Experience, setting, case volume, access to support, business acumen and familiarity with the therapy can change the work considerably.

An experienced specialist in a well-supported center may encounter different difficulties from a clinician who sees the condition infrequently or works in a rural area. A nurse coordinating a dedicated service may have options unavailable to someone balancing that responsibility with other duties.

Develop personas around these differences. Examine confidence in interpreting evidence, decision authority, available time, training needs and exposure to clinical or organizational risk.

Use research to test the distinctions. Personas should explain variations in behavior and requirements. They should help the team understand why an approach that works in one setting may fail to support another.

Map the journey from first awareness to continuing care

The professional’s journey may begin with awareness of an unmet clinical need or information about a potential solution. It continues through evaluating evidence, discussing alternatives and deciding whether the therapy belongs in their practice.

Adoption can involve local approvals, purchasing, training, changes to referral patterns and coordination with other teams. Clinical use then includes preparation, treatment, documentation, handover and follow-up.

Map these activities without assuming a single linear sequence. Professionals may return to evidence review after a difficult case or revise their approach when colleagues raise concerns.

Distinguish the journey of adopting the therapy from the recurring journey of delivering it to each patient. Both matter, but the barriers and improvement measures can differ.

Capture decisions and dependencies

At each stage, ask what the professional is trying to accomplish and what must be available before the work can proceed.

A decision may depend on diagnostic results, a complete patient history, clear eligibility criteria or advice from another specialty. A procedure may depend on staff, equipment and an appropriate location. Follow-up may depend on information that must be captured earlier.

Show the handovers between roles, including who supplies information and who receives it. Record where uncertainty is resolved and where work is repeated.

This reveals how a product can add burden beyond its immediate interaction. A useful output may still consume scarce clinical time if the professional must retrieve, interpret, reformat and document it through separate systems.

Measure the work and the waiting

The time required for a clinical activity can differ greatly from the time a patient waits to receive it. Both belong on the map.

Measure preparation, clinical work, documentation and recovery from problems where relevant. Record queues, appointment delays and time lost waiting for missing information.

Distinguish professional effort from elapsed time. Some delays consume little active attention but prevent patients progressing. Others require repeated chasing, rescheduling or explanation, drawing capacity away from care.

Define a common unit of work so comparisons remain meaningful. Cases with different complexity may require different analysis. Averages alone can hide the patients or professionals who face the greatest difficulty.

The purpose is to understand usable capacity and patient progress in the actual working environment.

Find the capacity that governs patient flow

A pathway may depend on a small amount of specialist attention surrounded by many competing demands. Headcount alone will not show how much of that attention is available.

Examine what professionals spend their time on, including avoidable administration, repeated assessments and interruptions. Determine whether the relevant constraint is clinical expertise, supporting staff, diagnostic access, equipment or a policy governing work.

The Theory of Constraints helps focus improvement on the factor limiting the whole pathway. Increasing referrals to a service already unable to process them can lengthen waiting without increasing treatment.

Investigate the apparent bottleneck before choosing a response. Better preparation or coordination may release capacity. In other cases, additional resources or changes to the operating model will be necessary.

“The measure of a design improvement is its effect on clinical work and patient progress, including the work it creates elsewhere.”

Observe clinical work at the Gemba

The Gemba is where the work actually happens. Direct observation helps teams understand how professionals use information, equipment and judgment under real conditions.

Observe preparation, interruptions, handovers and the work following the visible procedure. Ask what the professional expected to receive and what they had to obtain independently. Capture workarounds and job “cheat sheets” that are homemade to make working with your solution easier.

Workarounds deserve particular attention. A clinician may keep a private checklist because the formal process omits an important step. A coordinator may repeatedly contact another service because information arrives inconsistently.

These practices reveal requirements that interviews alone may miss. Discuss observations with the people involved so the team does not mistake an isolated event for a routine pattern. Include different settings and experience levels in the research.

Build the baseline from several sources

Gather organizational knowledge and assess technology and business perspectives before moving toward a solution. Apply that discipline to the professional journey.

Use existing clinical insight, training questions, support records and prior implementation experience to draft the map. Identify assumptions and gaps.

Assess the technologies already supporting the work. Consider compatibility with the environment, availability, maintenance, reliability and the practical resources needed for use.

Clarify the business conditions surrounding adoption. Purchasing arrangements, competing initiatives, staffing decisions and local policies may determine whether a clinically attractive solution can be implemented.

This baseline makes research more focused. It also prevents the development team from proposing changes that depend on unavailable capability or unacknowledged commitments from others.

Involve the people who can enable change

Voice of Business research asks leaders about desired outcomes, frustrations, risks and obstacles. It also identifies decision makers and influencers who should participate early.

For a healthcare professional pathway, this means understanding who can authorize changes to responsibilities, processes, resources and technology.

Ask which other initiatives could affect implementation. Identify the independent reviewers who can challenge the team’s assumptions. Agree what success will look like from the perspective of clinical work and patient outcomes.

Make the findings visible to the team members and relevant leaders. A professional may welcome a new approach while lacking the authority to secure the resources it requires. The project needs a realistic route from individual support to organizational adoption.

Use FOCUS to improve the journey

Apply the five-step FOCUS process to the evidence gathered through mapping.

Find the constraint. Identify the activity or resource currently governing the flow of suitable patients through care.

Optimize for it. Protect scarce capacity from incomplete information, unnecessary preparation, avoidable interruptions and repeat work.

Collaborate around it. Coordinate upstream and downstream roles so patients, information and resources arrive when needed.

Uplift it. Add capability or change responsibilities, processes and technology when existing capacity cannot meet the need.

Start Again. Review the pathway after improvement and identify its new limiting factor.

Automation can help when the task is understood and the proposed change supports clinical work. Evaluate its consequences, including review effort, exception handling and any burden transferred to another professional.

Turn the map into a shared improvement plan

The map should lead to a manageable set of changes with clear owners and measures. Test those changes in relevant settings and examine their effect on both professional effort and patient progress.

A Value Management Office can connect the initiatives with priorities, resources and project decisions. Clinical teams and other participants must remain involved in judging whether the changes improve work in practice.

“An effective professional journey supports a clinician through the complete job, from readiness to follow-up.”


What comes next

Use the healthcare professional journey to examine one priority pathway. Can your team explain who performs the work, where capacity is lost and what currently limits patient progress?

Build the map with the professionals involved. Establish the baseline, test an improvement at the constraint and review the result. Patient Centered Design advances when the solution and the surrounding system make beneficial care easier to deliver reliably.

“`

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